December 18, 2002

60 IN SIGHT:

Rudy for Senate, Take 2 (Dotty Lynch and Douglas Kiker, Dec. 18, 2002, CBS News: Washington Wrap)
A Marist poll of voters in New York shows former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani crushing Democratic Sen. Chuck Schumer in a prospective matchup. The poll of 817 voters, conducted December 4-9, shows Giuliani with 58 percent to Schumer's 37 percent.

Giuliani hasn't declared an interest in running against Schumer in 2004, but this poll will give Republicans an incentive to talk him into the race. Schumer, who defeated Republican Al D'Amato with 55 percent of the vote in 1998, remains popular; 53 percent give him a positive job rating.


The GOP seems certain to pick up at least a half dozen Senate seats in '04, but if they can recruit a couple of Guiliani types to run against otherwise safe Democrat incumbents, they could be headed close to 60. Posted by Orrin Judd at December 18, 2002 3:03 PM
Comments

Maybe, but first of all, they've got to find a spare brain to put in Lott's empty head.

Posted by: Peter at December 18, 2002 2:39 PM

OJ - first overly pessimistic about 2002 and now overly optimistic about 2004? Which seats do you think are obtainable by the GOP? I can see the GOP picking up a few seats but I figure the Dems will get their act together better for 2004 - and of course if Lott is still in charge look for the GOP to lose seats.

Posted by: AWW at December 18, 2002 3:08 PM

The Dems can't get their act together, their act is purely reactionary and will remain so, their base loves things the way they are and Dems can't afford to alienate base voters by proposing or even accepting change, so they cannot get themselves into a position of leadership that will attract swing voters. Of course Lott can blow things, but he's not likely to be the main issue. I think your guess of a few seats for the GOP is the most likely outcome. The economy and the war are unlikely to go so well as to make a Bush landslide.

Posted by: pj at December 18, 2002 3:20 PM

AWW:



http://brothersjudd.blogspot.com/2002_11_03_brothersjudd_archive.html#84069974

Posted by: oj at December 18, 2002 6:10 PM

OJ - thanks for the archive link. It does look promising but as you note it depends on who the GOP gets to challenge. For example I think Gov Guinn in NV has already said no to challenging Reed. As we saw in 2002 if the GOP doesn't get a solid challenger the Dems will hold the seat (see Montana, Louisiana, Iowa)

Posted by: AWW at December 18, 2002 9:44 PM
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