November 5, 2002
WING AND A PRAYER:
Predictions 2K2 (Ben Domenech, 11/04/02)Orrin Judd
Senate: 44 Dem, 55 Rep, 1 Ind
House: GOP 230, Dems 204, 1 Ind
Governors: GOP wins 16 of the 23
Sleepers: Governor: Bill Simon (R, CA), Doug Gross (R, IA) & Senate: Greg Ganske (R, IA)
As you can see, I predicted with my heart rather than my head, but this just feels like '80 & '94 to me. If so the only close Senate seats that I have the Dems winning are AR and NJ, with IA and LA (in a runoff) as the biggest upset wins (I see as per usual my math was atrocious and this actually only gets the GOP to 54). The GOP would also do far better in the gubernatorials than anyone expects, including CA, OR, IA, and VT (where if no candidate gets 50% the Republican legislature chooses among the candidates). Other folks picked more rationally. Posted by Orrin Judd at November 5, 2002 12:30 PM
I woke up this morning incredibly pessimistic. In part, this is the natural conservative feeling that a majority of the country can't possibly agree with us, but I also think that ties go to the Democrats. So:
Ar=Pryor, for the reasons OJ gave.
Mn=Mondale, because all he had to do at the debate was not drool on himself.
Co=Strickland, because Allard is a nonentity.
Mo=Carnahan. This is half sheer pessimism, half certainty that what ever votes are needed will be found in St. Louis.
SD=Johnson. Too much natural love of power splitting, too much deference to Tom Daschle.
Ga=Cleland. The war hero wins.
Tx=Kirk. I can't justify this one, I just feel it in my bones.
La=Landrieu, after the run-off (unless control of the senate depends on it, in which case John Doe, R)
NC=Bowles. I hate this one, but Liddy is a terrible campaigner who took off the Sunday before election day.
NH=Shaheen. Sorry, OJ, but this one had to be put away early for Sununu to win.
NJ=Lautenberg, because we are put on this Earth to suffer.
If I'm wrong, I'm wrong about Mo and Tx, but that still leaves the D's up by 3, which is my overall prediction. I hope I'm wrong, I hope to God I'm wrong about all of it.
David: In re Carnahan. Your comment about machine politics is apt, but there has to be a perceived need to be "needed". I'm not sure the machine will crank over for a retreaded appointee the way it did to defeat Ashcroft.
Posted by: Tom Roberts at November 5, 2002 2:32 PMorrin -- drudge is reporting exit polling data -- shows R pickups in MN, MO, GA; D pickups in AR, NC, CO.
Posted by: pj at November 5, 2002 3:03 PMThis is worth what you pay for it, but at 4:00 pm, Drudge is running the following exit poll results:
Coleman [R] up three
Cornyn (R) up eight
Talent (R) leads
Pryor (D) leads easily
Bowles (D) leads Dole
Chambliss (R) up four
Strickland (D) leads easily
Landrieu (D) headed for runoff
Supposedly the networks say the early VNS numbers were so strange that they can't use them.
Posted by: oj at November 5, 2002 3:12 PMPretty decent discussion of the numbers and what people are making of them in The Corner
.
Josh Marshall
, who makes no bones about his pro-Dem bias, has different numbers. He has Johnson, Mondale and Shaheen leading, with Bowles losing.
Holyoke Ma is a old mill town just south of us with a large Puerto Rican population. Local TV just reported that the anti-bilingual ed. referendum got 63% of the Holyoke vote.
Posted by: David Cohen at November 5, 2002 8:27 PMI have returned to the scene of my crime to say: "Wow, did I blow it." In particular, I have to appologize to Barry Meislin (I'm pretty sure) for stating, fairly arrogantly, that Romney had no chance.
Whoops.