WEST OF EDEN

After the fall: An inside look at the Bush team's plan to run Iraq once Saddam is gone (KEVIN WHITELAW, 12/02/02, US News)

Most U.S. officials, mindful of the traditional Arab suspicion of American motives, don't want to be seen as dictating the shape of the next Iraqi government, aside from fostering a multiethnic, representative government within today's borders. For many of the remaining questions, the State Department is hoping that the Future of Iraq program it launched earlier this year will help Iraqis shape their new nation. It is convening 16 working groups of Iraqi exiles to discuss everything from war crimes and political transition to water issues and energy. Their recommendations are not binding, but they provide an indication of where things might end up. On war crimes, for instance, the working group is leaning toward prosecuting only about a dozen of the most senior figures in Saddam's regime and forming a truth and reconciliation commission to provide amnesty for the rest. U.S. officials, meanwhile, are gathering evidence for trials against the top leadership, but they are publicly vague about how deep they
want to go.

Such planning is limited by the dearth of information about Iraq. U.S. officials have compiled thick briefing books on every aspect of Iraq. But much of the research is based on estimates and educated guesses. There hasn't been an Iraqi census in years, for instance. Statistics on everything from the economy to healthcare are either spurious or suppressed. Along with serving immediate humanitarian needs, international teams would have to survey every aspect of Iraqi society.

Deciding when to leave Iraq will also be dicey. Nobody wants to see an aggressive Iraqi military re-emerge from the embers of Saddam's regime. But Iraqis live in a dangerous neighborhood. "We should plan a 10-year stay to build the Iraqi military into a force capable of defending itself and tie it closely to the United States," says Clawson. But after several years, that commitment might involve little more than a small U.S. force and broad security guarantees from Washington. "It's a totalitarian state, not a failed state," Clawson adds. "This is not Haiti or Bosnia or Somalia."

One of the many oddities of liberal opposition to the war is that as soon as we we topple the government they want to leave in place they'll be insisting that all its leaders be tried for war crimes. Posted by Orrin Judd at November 26, 2002 8:27 AM