November 25, 2002
THE ROLLING LANDSLIDE:
Lucas Mulls Party Switch: Ky. Democrat's Decision May Come Today (Susan Crabtree, 11/25/02, Roll Call)After a meeting between Speaker Dennis Hastert (R-Ill.) and Rep. Ken Lucas (D-Ky.) before lawmakers left town, Republicans expect a decision as early as today about whether the Kentucky Democrat will switch parties.House Republicans are keeping the details about the potential political coup close to the vest and would only speak anonymously about what one GOP aide called "very serious discussions" between Lucas and House GOP leaders. [...]
Lucas is among a handful of conservative Democrats whom Republicans have tried to coax across the aisle for years. Unlike past efforts to convince lawmakers to swap sides, Republicanleaders did not dangle a plum committee assignment or chairmanship and Lucas did not ask for any tangible incentive, according to the GOP sources.
Instead, the political dynamics of Kentucky's 4th district and President Bush's current popularity have forced the issue this time.
According to one GOP source, Lucas is concerned about his political viability in 2004 if he remains a Democrat.
One suspects Mr. Lucas is not alone in his concern. Posted by Orrin Judd at November 25, 2002 7:27 PM
I still
think Zell Miller won't jump.
Which is why, of course, he'll hold a surprise press conference tomorrow morning announcing that he will.
(The technique employed below would be called "tilting at windmills" if one were to be generous to the tilter.)
Posted by: Christopher Badeaux at November 25, 2002 6:44 PMSenators don't have much incentive to jump . . . and in any case won't jump till after the Landrieu election. House members are easier to switch because, with 98% House re-election rates and no redistricting for ten years, Republicans are likely to control the House for years.
Posted by: pj at November 25, 2002 7:02 PMActually, you'd think the House is less certain than the Senate, given that there's only one vulnerable Republican in '04 (Peter Fitzgerald, IL) but as many as 8 or 10 Democrats.
Posted by: oj at November 25, 2002 8:02 PMI believe that it's not the most vulnerable politicians who change parties, but secure politicians who have some ideological affinity with the other party and feel they can gain power and influence by switching. Jeffords is a case in point.
Posted by: pj at November 25, 2002 9:39 PMShelby is another.
Posted by: Christopher Badeaux at November 26, 2002 7:03 AMShelby would have been toast if he'd stayed a Democrat
Posted by: oj at November 26, 2002 2:14 PM