November 8, 2002
THE DISAPPEARING DEMOCRAT MINORITY:Senate Campaign 2004 (Zachary Emig, 11/7/2002)
I've put together a list of the Senators up for re-election in 2004, and included their percent of the vote in their last election and the way the state went in the 2000 presidential election. Sorted by party and then their last election's percent, it doesn't look good for Democrats:
Mr. Emig does the math and it comes out nasty. There are only three incumbent GOP senators up for re-election in states that Al Gore carried: Grassley (IA), Specter (PA) and Fitzgerald (IL). Grassley and Specter have survived several challenges each. Only Fitzgerald is completing his first term and is necessarily vulnerable. Meanwhile twelve Democrats are up in states that Bush won or tied with Gore. This includes the two top Senate Democrats--Daschle (SD) and Reid (NV)--and two supposed future presidential candidates: Bayh (IN) and Edwards (NC). The Democrats aren't just going to be defending any old hacks, but the very cream of their crop (for the sake of argument, let's assume there's a difference). Their defense will be occurring against the backdrop of the national party lighting out after the GOP for cutting taxes, opposing abortion, supporting gun rights, ignoring the UN, privatizing government programs, appointing conservative judges, etc.. In other words, the very issues that President Bush won their states on in '00.
Posted by Orrin Judd at November 8, 2002 6:47 PM