November 8, 2002
THE DISAPPEARING DEMOCRAT MINORITY:
Senate Campaign 2004 (Zachary Emig, 11/7/2002)I've put together a list of the Senators up for re-election in 2004, and included their percent of the vote in their last election and the way the state went in the 2000 presidential election. Sorted by party and then their last election's percent, it doesn't look good for Democrats:
Mr. Emig does the math and it comes out nasty. There are only three incumbent GOP senators up for re-election in states that Al Gore carried: Grassley (IA), Specter (PA) and Fitzgerald (IL). Grassley and Specter have survived several challenges each. Only Fitzgerald is completing his first term and is necessarily vulnerable. Meanwhile twelve Democrats are up in states that Bush won or tied with Gore. This includes the two top Senate Democrats--Daschle (SD) and Reid (NV)--and two supposed future presidential candidates: Bayh (IN) and Edwards (NC). The Democrats aren't just going to be defending any old hacks, but the very cream of their crop (for the sake of argument, let's assume there's a difference). Their defense will be occurring against the backdrop of the national party lighting out after the GOP for cutting taxes, opposing abortion, supporting gun rights, ignoring the UN, privatizing government programs, appointing conservative judges, etc.. In other words, the very issues that President Bush won their states on in '00.
Posted by Orrin Judd at November 8, 2002 6:47 PM
I'm not sure what putting Pelosi's face in the ads will do.
First, she's a Rep, and most folks don't know their OWN Rep, much less that of some other state.
Second, the most prominent Dem (in terms of coverage) will be the front-runner, who will be decided MUCH earlier than in the past, due to Dem revamping of their primary schedules.
Third, going negative by the GOP (especially against someone who may or may not be known to the rest of the nation, i.e., Pelosi) opens the door to a potential backlash. I'd venture that going negative works best where your opponent either has real problems, or where it's at a knife's edge. If the GOP is as strong as you project, going negative is as likely to create problems as solve them, IMHO.
Who's going to be on Meet the Press from now until there's a nominee?
Posted by: oj at November 9, 2002 6:59 AMFitzgerald is screwed. His state went Dem by a huge margin. Specter's a RINO who voted against ANWR drilling. Bush needs to write those seats off, repeal those steel tariffs, and let the national economy speak for itself elsewhere in 2004.
Posted by: David Ross at November 10, 2002 1:30 PMSpecter also went to the mattresses for Clarence Thomas. I don't mind if he likes caribou.
Posted by: oj at November 10, 2002 2:46 PM