November 4, 2002
DIVINE WIND:
Late shift appears to favor GOP (Richard Benedetto, 11/04/2002, USA TODAY)The GOP's 6-point advantage mirrors the lead Republicans held in the final days of the 1994 election, when they won control of the House of Representatives and Senate.Frank Newport, Gallup Poll editor in chief, says the late GOP gain can be traced to three factors:
* Jitters over the economy are declining. The poll found that those who said the economy was getting worse fell from 59% two weeks ago to 51% now.
"Democrats were counting on worry about the economy to boost them, and that decreased in the last two weeks," Newport said.
* More Republicans than Democrats say they're more enthusiastic about voting than they were in the last off-year election in 1998.
* Of those who said President Bush was a factor in their vote, respondents said 2-1 they were voting in favor of Bush, not against him. His job approval is 63%.
Obviously the GOP won't post the kinds of gains it did in '94--I think they picked up something like 56 House seats that year--but these numbers suggest they can hold off history and not lose many, or any, seats. Posted by Orrin Judd at November 4, 2002 9:02 AM
This poll of course confirms the NYT poll we discussed yesterday, below. But the state by state Senatorial polls are interesting. Talent, Allard, Thune, and Sununu are up now? Whodathunkit? Maybe PM Howard of the land of Auz, because the exact same thing happened a year ago, largely for the same reasons.
Posted by: Tom Roberts at November 4, 2002 8:25 AMIt's getting hard to resist giddiness--the latest polls suggest the GOP is even closing hard in the IA Senate and governor races, where they were down by twenty in each last month.
Posted by: oj at November 4, 2002 9:17 AMOrrin,
When you get giddy there must be smelling salts in the air. I prefer optimism in these kinds of things, but, strangely I am feeling cautious. I just know, without question, that the dems stuff the ballot boxes and phony up votes with such flare that one cannot feel too good about any close race.
I was last seen on this board trying to get Orrin to give Henry James a chance. (Forlorn hope.) Anyhoo, I'm a political independent who's starting to get uncomfortable. A couple days ago it looked like I'd get exactly what I want: the status quo, a narrowly divided Congress that can't do doo-doo.
I'm not sure now. Too many close races and the generic polls seem to be breaking the GOP's way. If I were Pete Rose and had to bet, I'd say the Repubs will take both houses.
A saving grace: nobody seems to care. The apathy item on Scrappleface is a hoot because it's true.
I am in agreement with Neil...
Posted by: Bruce Cleaver at November 4, 2002 3:06 PMCasey:
The only copy of Princess Casseopia I can find is a hardcover at $20, but I promise I'll read it when I find it cheaper.
You must be looking at the constellations, Orrin. Try www.bn.com. They've got the Penguin paperback of The Princess Casamassima at $12.55.
Or try www.abebooks.com. They've got copies as low as three bucks.
But I'm not holding my breath until you start reading.