October 24, 2002
THE WEST MOVES SOUTH:
The End of the West: The next clash of civilizations will not be between the West and the rest but between the United States and Europe—and Americans remain largely oblivious (Charles A. Kupchan, November 2002, The Atlantic Monthly)The American era appears to be alive and well. The U.S. economy is more than twice the size of the next biggest—Japan's—and the United States spends more on defense than the world's other major powers combined. China is regularly identified as America's next challenger, but it is decades away from entering the top ranks. The terrorist attacks in New York and Washington certainly punctured the sense of security that arose from the end of the Cold War and the triumph of the West, but they have done little to compromise U.S. hegemony. Indeed, they have reawakened America's appetite for global engagement. At least for the foreseeable future, the United States will continue to enjoy primacy, taking on Islamic terrorism even as it keeps a watchful eye on China.That encapsulates the conventional wisdom—and it is woefully off the mark. Not only is American primacy far less durable than it appears, but it is already beginning to diminish. And the rising challenger is not China or the Islamic world but the European Union, an emerging polity that is in the process of marshaling the impressive resources and historical ambitions of Europe's separate nation-states.
The EU's annual economic output has reached about $8 trillion, compared with America's $10 trillion, and the euro will soon threaten the dollar's global dominance. Europe is strengthening its collective consciousness and character and forging a clearer sense of interests and values that are quite distinct from those of the United States. The EU's member states are debating the adoption of a Europe-wide constitution (a move favored by two thirds of the union's population), building armed forces capable of operating independently of the U.S. military, and striving to project a single voice in the diplomatic arena.
This could not possibly be any more wrong nor come at a time that more conclusively proves its every premise to be erroneous.
Posted by Orrin Judd at October 24, 2002 8:22 AM
Jesus: To paraphrase Bastiat "Pan European democracy will last until one group or alliance of groups figures out how to vote themselves benefits using taxes on other groups". At that point, either pj's absolutist trend will ensue, or the euro and EU will crack. My guess is that Philip II of Spain and Napolean provide suitable precedents for why an absolutist EU will fail utterly. At best, the EU should base its constitution on the Swiss cantonal structure.
Posted by: Tom Roberts at October 24, 2002 1:53 PMWhatever this Kupchan fellow is drinking, it's pretty strong stuff.
The European Union is going nowhere. A European Federal State, Pan-european military dictators etc... I don't believe anything of it. You don't build an empire with 80 years-old "warriors".
And the Euro is only working for countries like Spain, that has traded its utterly crappy currency for something much less crappy. The intrest rates that are required to keep the chronic inflation of countries like Italy at least somewhat under control are obviously not helping the German economy.
Europe will not collapse overnight, but it isn't going to replace the US as the leader of the world either.
I've wondered about the possibility of a nasty ethnic showdown, especially in places like France, The Nethlands, & the scandinavian countries, where very large proportions of their their muslim populations aren't inclined to assimilate, even if the natives actually wanted them to (I'm not sure they really do)
I just don't think it will go very smoothly. I think the Euros are really whistling past the graveyard.
Great post, esp the demography stuff, which also bothered me when I read this article. Link coming...
Posted by: Charlie Murtaugh at October 25, 2002 8:02 AM