September 27, 2002

NUMBERS GAME:

10-State Election Tracking Survey Results: key elections in Arkansas, Colorado, Florida, Minnesota, Missouri, New Jersey, North Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee and Texas (MSNBC/Zogby International, September 24, 2002)
Based solely on the numbers here, you'd have to say Hutchinson (AR) and Allard (CO) are doomed unless there's an unlikely GOP tide. On the other hand, Wellstone (MN) and Toricelli (NJ) appear to be toast and Tim Johnson (SD) is in trouble. Meanwhile, just as Bill Simon never had a shot in such a Democratic state as California, take a look at the numbers in Republican Texas, where the Democrats thought they could be competitive. Posted by Orrin Judd at September 27, 2002 7:26 PM
Comments

why is carnahan winning? That is funny.

Posted by: neil at September 28, 2002 8:27 AM

I'm not laughing

Posted by: oj at September 28, 2002 9:40 AM

you are doing the same thing you did to us and yourself at the near end of the 2000 election by lowering our expectations, so when we keep and expand our majorities the momentum will only build as opposed to the typical "day-after-wedding" letdown.

Posted by: neil at September 28, 2002 11:33 AM

shhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh

Posted by: oj at September 28, 2002 12:23 PM

Zogby's numbers have been more pro-Democrat than other polls. I believe he was closer than other polls in 2000 because he weighted Gore more than Bush and when the DWI switched voters to Gore he looked much better than he should have.

Carnahan ahead by 7 is very questionable - every other poll shows Talent even or up by 5-7. I agree Allard and Hutchinson may be in trouble but there are more Dems in trouble than Zogby allows (Torricelli leading Forester - again this goes against every other poll).

Posted by: AWW at September 28, 2002 9:34 PM

i never understood why Hutchinson is having trouble, he is a stand up guy. Doesn't it strike funny that dem running or in the heat of the battle is a repulsive figure, ie wellstone, torricelli, carnahan, davis. Actually, I've heard Tim Jonson, he ssems like one of the only likeable dems. Of the 250, or so, elected dems, can one only count the honest likeable ones on one hand?

Posted by: neil at September 29, 2002 11:39 AM
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