TURNOUT, TURNOUT, TURNOUT:

Underlying motives to Iran's U-turns (Safa Haeri, 1/08/04, Asia Times)

The Islamic Republic of Iran, feeling the chilling contact of the American knife at its throat, is seriously considering its reintegration into the international community by dramatically changing its policies.
This process of transformation is set to begin with the shelving of some of the 1979 Islamic revolution's fundamental principles, as highlighted by accepting humanitarian relief missions from the United States for the earthquake-stricken people of Bam, followed by the resumption of relations with Egypt - the first Arab state to have officially recognized the state of Israel, while considering seriously the possibility of resuming open dialogue with the United States, aka the "Great Satan". [...]

According to well-informed sources in Tehran, the scenario worked out by the trio of Hojjatoleslam Hasan Rohani, the influential secretary of the SCNS, Dr Ali Akbar Velayati, special adviser to the leader on foreign affairs and Mohammad Javad Ardeshir Larijani, also a senior adviser to Khamenei for international relations, envisages that the conservatives will win control of the next majlis - Iran's 290-seat parliament - following legislative elections next month - in turn keeping Khatami's hands tied for the rest of his final term of office, which expires in 2005. In this very likely case; the next speaker will be Rohani. The majlis would then give the go-ahead to the start of open negotiations with the Americans, the Iranian delegation being led by Larijani. This process is necessary to prepare the public for accepting the change of heart by the leader and the conservatives, until now, stubbornly opposed to any dialogue with the Great Satan.

It is interesting to note that it was Rohani, in tandem with Larijani, who conducted the talks with the International Atomic Energy Agency, as well as with the envoys of Europe's Big Three, namely the foreign affairs ministers of Britain, France and Germany, leading to Iran's signing of the Additional Protocol to the Non-Proliferation Treaty, allowing international nuclear inspectors to visit, at will, any Iranian nuclear-related site or project without the slightest restrictions from the Iranian authorities.

Of the three American preconditions for normalizing relations with the Islamic Republic, namely giving sound assurances that they are not after weapons of mass destruction, stop supporting terrorist groups and stop supporting Arab and Palestinian organizations opposed to peace with Israel. Tehran has directly and indirectly fulfilled two of them by signing the protocols and normalizing ties with Egypt, leaving the issues surrounding hostilities with the Jewish state.

Encouraging Iranians to turn out and vote in February seems worth the risk of being accused of meddling by the clerics. In fact, if folk are reading the mood there right, the argument that voting serves the purposes of the Great Satan, rather than of the mullahs, could well backfire.

Posted by Orrin Judd at January 8, 2004 08:22 AM