January 08, 2004
SMILING, HAPPY PEOPLE:
President's prospects rise with nation's mood (Richard Benedetto, 1/08/04, USA Today)
Most Americans begin this election year confident in the economy, the conduct of the war in Iraq, the battle against terrorism, and their outlook for the future, a USA TODAY/CNN/Gallup Poll shows.Optimism about the economy is the highest it has been since President Bush took office. Worry about being a victim of a terrorist attack is the lowest since before Sept. 11, 2001. [...]
Bush's Republican Party is also benefiting from the sunny outlook. If the election for Congress were today, 50% of likely voters say they would vote for the GOP candidate, 45% for the Democrat. [...]
Similarly, confidence in the stock market is returning after the high-tech boom went bust in 2000 and corporate scandals such as Enron drove investors away.
Six months ago, 31% said investing $1,000 in the stock market would be a good idea. Today, 53% say it would be wise to invest.
That 5% gap in the generic ballot number is starting to look real--it was the same in 2002 exit polling, if I recall correctly. Meanwhile, confidence in the stock market gives the GOP the freedom to run on Social Security privatization and leaves the Democrats arguing that you can't trust an American economy that most of us are pretty confident about. Such dissonances are political suicide--just ask the Republicans, who ran against a Washington most people had faith in for fifty years. Posted by Orrin Judd at January 8, 2004 07:30 AM
This is completely wrong. Soaring deficits, high unemployment and international mistrust of the dollar make the economy a threat to the president and a great issue for the Democrats. I know, because Kevin Phillips said so on NPR this morning, and he's a Republican.
Posted by: David Cohen at January 8, 2004 07:54 AMMy dear fellow Colgate alum has gone a long way on one self-obvious prediction--that whiite Southerners weren't going to stay Democrats once civil rights came along.
Posted by: oj at January 8, 2004 08:00 AMKevin Phillips is still alive?
Posted by: Chris at January 8, 2004 08:23 AMOJ
That prediction was over 30 years ago, and since then he is zippo for 30.
Here is a prediction for you http://www.amazingkreskin.com/
Orrin commented on the stock market vis a vis privatization. We should be bold regardless what the market is doing.
The best response to the "what about the market" or "what about Enron" objection often used to argue against SSec privatization is as follows.
Carry a picture of a housing project, or a bureaucrat with you. Pick your best local example of government waste and point out that the money is going to go SOMEWHERE! The worst stock market outperforms the "best" government program.
Posted by: BB at January 8, 2004 11:04 AM