December 04, 2003
WE SHALL NOT BE MOVED:
Black voters divided on candidates (Brian DeBose, 12/03/03, THE WASHINGTON TIMES)
With the primary season less than two months away, black voters have yet to unite behind a single Democratic challenger to President Bush — something that hasn't happened in 20 years.The mass indecision of black voters at this point in the campaign season hasn't occurred since 1984, when the Rev. Jesse Jackson ran a strong campaign in the Democratic primary, political analysts say. The expectation that the Congressional Black Caucus would set the tone for which Democratic candidate to support is waning, with the 39 caucus members equally fractured.
More than half the members of the caucus have withheld their endorsements; another 16 have dispersed them among eight of the nine candidates in the field. Usually at this time in the election cycle a majority swell of support is evident among black voters.
The point being that it's awfully hard to see how a Howard Dean or a Dick Gephardt energizes black voters for the general election in the way that a Bill Clinton did. Posted by Orrin Judd at December 4, 2003 06:17 PM
Particularly in light of the recent jump in black voters approving of Bush and the GOP, this has to be a good sign. Outreach is a slow process, but the results look to be steady.
Posted by: Bill Fusz at December 4, 2003 07:25 PMDon't make too much of this or the bad reception of Jackson.Blacks have just not yet decided who will deliver the most pork.
Posted by: M. at December 4, 2003 08:14 PMAfter three years of watching the Dems share of the Black vote stuck with a 9-handle, I am resigned to the reality that for the GOP progress can only be meausred in fewer Blacks bothering to vote. This is not insignificant, by the way -- is like picking up 1/2 game in the baseball standings instead of 1 game -- and is worth pursuing. But the strategy must be designed to expose Dems as not worth getting excited about as opposed to pandering to Blacks until it costs you on your far more reliable base.
Posted by: MG at December 5, 2003 07:24 AMAlthough Republicans should keep trying to get black voters, it is rather bleak. The numbers are pitiful and it is really one voter at a time. I wouldn't count on this voting block at all.
Posted by: pchuck at December 5, 2003 08:44 AMIt's hard slogging uphill but remember that we don't have to win the black vote. Another 10-12% going Republican and the Dems are done.
Posted by: David Cohen at December 5, 2003 08:52 AMBlacks were not excited about Bill Clinton in 1992. I only remember tension as the Jackson-type leaders were wary on anyone from the DLC. Black enthusiasm only began when strangely they began identifying with him in office since he was constantly "persecuted" by the GOP. By 1996 we can say there was enthusiastic support, but that was gained during office not in the first primary season.
Posted by: Chris Durnell at December 5, 2003 10:41 AMChris:
That's counter historical. Clinton's '92 victory was based in large part on high black turnout and unanimous support.
Posted by: oj at December 5, 2003 10:49 AM