December 04, 2003
GETTING WARMER:
That Kyoto Is A Fraud - (Owen McShane, 12/4/2003, Centre For Resource Mngmnt. Studies)
You might think that a policy issue which puts at stake hundreds of billions of dollars' worth of global output would arouse at least the casual interest of the world's economics and finance ministries. You would be wrong. Global warming and the actions contemplated to mitigate it could well involve costs of that order. Assessing the possible scale of future greenhouse-gas emissions, and hence of man-made global warming, involves economic forecasts and economic calculations. Those forecasts and calculations will in turn provide the basis for policy on the issue. Yet governments have been content to leave these questions to a body - The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) - which appears to lack the necessary expertise. The result is all too likely to be bad policy, at potentially heavy cost to the world economy.
Mr. McShane handles what he calls the "14 Frauds of the Kyoto Protocol" so deftly that even us "non-science" majors can get it.
Russia announced two days ago that it would not ratify, as Kyoto conflicted with its growth objectives. The dream is over. Pity.
Posted by: Peter B at December 4, 2003 05:50 PMNPR carried a story this evening suggesting that Russia is just posturing to extort money from Europe and Japan. The theory is that Russia will be devestated by global warming because, if the permafrost melts, its oil fields and pipelines in Siberia will be washed away.
Because, you know, global warming is scientific fact; Kyoto will stop it; and Russia has no other use for hundred's of millions of acres of land in a newly temperate zone.
Posted by: David Cohen at December 4, 2003 06:25 PMThe AP in Honolulu reports today that Japan is providing $3M to the U. of Hawaii to study climate in Asia-Pacific.
Julian McCreary, head of the climate study group, is quoted as saying, "The general circulation models, which are the main tools for climate prediction and predictions of global warming, still have many uncertainties."
That's from inside the whale.
Actually, they are almost completely arbitrary.
Posted by: Harry Eagar at December 4, 2003 06:38 PM