Fossil fuels are proving to be increasingly unreliable in the face of climate-induced extreme weather events

The status quo is not working; America's fossil fuel-fired power fleet is becoming increasingly unreliable, causing outages and grid failures during extreme weather events. In fact, in its 2023 "State of Reliability" report, the North American Electric Reliability Corporation's (NERC) first key finding was that conventional generation is experiencing its "highest level of unavailability" and facing severe reliability challenges, primarily due to poor performance of the gas fleet during extreme weather events and the increasing outage rates of coal-fired power plants. NERC also noted that "there are no apparent trends in the unavailability of the other forms of generation." The coal and gas fleets are not sufficiently equipped to perform under extreme weather conditions.

This trend was clearly on display during Winter Storm Elliott in December 2022, which knocked out electricity for millions of Americans in the eastern United States. PJM, one of the grid operators in the region, found that 70 percent of its forced outages were caused by failing gas plants and 16 percent were caused by coal. This is because gas plants face fuel supply and equipment failures from freezing temperatures; and while fossil fuel-fired power plants caused the vast majority of outages, wind resources performed well above their expected capacity during the storm. Grid operator Midcontinent Independent System Operator (MISO) also found that wind production remained high during the storm, providing support to the grid while gas plants caused shortfalls.

And it's not just winter storms that pose threats to the fossil fleet; extreme heat also causes power plants to shut down or underperform. While Texas faced extreme heat waves this summer, coal and gas resources faced significantly higher outages than usual. Meanwhile, renewables supported almost half of the electricity demand in the state, meeting and exceeding forecasts. As the world faced its hottest summer on record and climate change continues to exacerbate extreme weather events, it's crucial that grid operators pay attention to the vulnerabilities of conventional gas generation.