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Cheaper but less powerful lithium iron phosphate, or LFP, batteries once weren't considered a mainstream alternative to those that drive most EVs outside China today, which are rich in nickel and cobalt. Then nickel and cobalt prices rocketed, forcing auto makers to find workarounds as they prepared their EV supply chains for growth. In 2021, Tesla said it would adopt LFP for some lower-range models. Ford, Volkswagen and others have since taken the same route.

Could sodium-ion technology follow the pattern? LFP replaced scarce nickel and cobalt with abundant iron, but doubled down on scarce lithium. As nickel and cobalt prices cooled last year, lithium prices stayed high. Sodium ion in turn replaces scarce lithium with abundant sodium. The price of battery-grade lithium carbonate in China has dropped 60% this year, according to data provider Benchmark Mineral Intelligence. Slower EV sales in the country as subsidies expired are the most obvious reason, but behind the scenes the rise of sodium ion might be another.

The new technology is less powerful than the latest lithium batteries. But it matches the older generations of lithium batteries that are in EVs today, so consumers might not care. And it has other advantages--being less fire-prone and more capable in freezing temperatures.

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