RINOS!:

Pelosi's successor as the leader of House Democrats, Rep. Hakeem Jeffries of Brooklyn, has made clear he gets it. He named Rep. Suzan DelBene of Washington, a former tech executive and former chair of the House's moderate New Democrat Coalition, to lead the DCCC going into the 2024 campaign. Virginia Rep. Abigail Spanberger will look out for the interests of "frontliners" in swing districts like her own in a newly created Democratic leadership position called "battleground leadership representative." And Rep. Pete Aguilar, a California centrist known for working across the aisle with Republicans, will move up to the No. 3 position of caucus chair.

Spanberger, a former CIA case officer, promises to be a watchdog with teeth. DelBene calls her "a fiercely independent voice" and several supportive colleagues noted last month that she has "never been shy about voicing concerns, sharing perspectives from on the ground, and suggesting strategy or messaging improvements to Caucus Leadership." No kidding. After Democrats won their very narrow majority in 2020, she predicted House Democrats would "get f--king torn apart in 2022" over socialism, Medicare for All, the Green New Deal, and defunding the police. If anyone can head off calls to cut police budgets and "abolish ICE," it's Spanberger.

The most successful messages in tight races often are boring, as writer Matt Yglesias put it in a recent analysis. I'd add that they're also basic. The progressive firm Data for Progress makes these points repeatedly in an extensive study of what worked in tight races last year. The top five persuasive messages out of 135 studied came from at-risk Democratic Senate candidates who won.

Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto of Nevada was responsible for two of them, including what Data for Progress called "the single-most overperforming Democratic message out of the 135 we tested." It was a template for how Democrats should handle the GOP crime offensive. "I worked hand-in-hand with law enforcement to crack down on crimes and keep our communities safe," she said, and described how. Cortez Masto also offered a simple but effective economic message: "My number one priority is improving our economy," she said, and explained what she was doing for businesses and families.

Sen. Mark Kelly of Arizona highlighted his work to ban surprise medical billing, lower prescription costs and protect Social Security. Sen. Maggie Hassan of New Hampshire and then-Lt. Gov. John Fetterman of Pennsylvania scored with China competition messages stressing jobs at home.

"Fighting inflation and lowering costs starts with making more stuff in America and bringing jobs home. We don't need to be outsourcing any more jobs and production to China," Fetterman said. The Hassan version: "I helped pass legislation to support manufacturing and strengthen our ability to outcompete China. I'm working to bring good-paying jobs home and to support the next generation of entrepreneurs right here in America. Reducing our reliance on other countries and bringing jobs back to America is a win, no matter what party you are in."

As the Hassan message and others cited by Data for Progress suggest, bipartisanship is a winner in races requiring persuasion. GOP Rep. Liz Cheney's endorsement helped reassure uncertain voters about Spanberger in Virginia and Rep. Elissa Slotkin in Michigan. Georgia Sen. Raphael Warnock talked about working with Republican Sen. Ted Cruz to get a highway from Texas to Georgia, and even made an ad about it.

The electoral success of centrists last year followed the 2020 win by Biden, a classic deal-cutter with mainstream instincts. The shifting dynamic is apparent in who is worried.

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