GREATEST WAR EVER:

[T]he combination of a failed war abroad and a brittle, strained system at home is increasing the likelihood of some sort of implosion with every passing day. Regardless of whether this will be good or bad for the West, it's an outcome policymakers should prepare for.

There are various scenarios for what might happen in Russia after defeat in Ukraine becomes even clearer. Most likely is Russian President Vladimir Putin's departure from office, followed by a vicious power struggle among the extreme right-wing nationalists who want to continue the war effort and destroy the existing political hierarchy, authoritarian conservatives who have a stake in the system, and a resurgent semi-democratic movement committed to ending the war and reforming Russia. We don't know who will win, but we can confidently predict that the power struggle will weaken the regime and distract Russia from what remains of its war effort. In turn, a weakened regime, in conjunction with a malfunctioning economy, will invite disgruntled Russians to take to the streets, perhaps even with arms, and encourage some of the non-Russian political units comprising the Russian Federation to opt for greater self-rule; leading candidates include Tatarstan, Bashkortostan, Chechnya, Dagestan, and Sakha. 

In terms of improving the capabilities of Australia's warships, CNN reported this week that the maneuverable and sea-skimming NSM would double the range of Australia's warships to 185 kilometers.

CNN also notes that Australia could deploy HIMARS in Southeast Asia or the Pacific, as the US Marine Corps has been exercising with the system under the presumption that it may need to be deployed somewhere in the region in the event of hostilities including a potential clash over Taiwan or in the South China Sea.

This missile sale aligns with US efforts to create a "missile wall" in the Pacific. Asia Times has reported on US missile projects such as the Typhon, OpFires and Long Range Hypersonic Weapon (LRHW) projects, which may be deployed in the First and Second Island Chains to deter China's expansion into the Pacific.

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