WE CAN'T REPLACE DRIVERS FAST ENOUGH:

Over the years, many AV companies--we at Waymo, and others at Aurora, Cruise, Motional, Nuro, and Oxbotica to name just a few--have been making tremendous progress in cities as diverse as Las Vegas and San Francisco in the US and Oxford in England. Given the fundamental complexity of the problem, consolidation in the AV industry is inevitable and will continue. However, building on the shared technical progress by the core of the industry, we will also see rapid and exciting expansion. Riders in San Francisco and the cities of Wuhan and Chongqing in China can already also hail cars with no human driver in the front seat. In the coming year and beyond, we will see the industry enter a new phase as fully-autonomous ride-hailing services expand rapidly to new markets. 

Trucking will also see progress. Autonomous trucks are already hauling thousands of tons of goods for Wayfair, UPS, FedEx, Coca Cola--and even the Girl Scouts of North Texas. In 2023, autonomous big rigs will become a more common sight, especially in Texas and Arizona. AV companies will sign more partnerships with carriers, freight brokers, and major consumer brands. Freight volumes will increase, demonstrating how AVs could help untangle supply chains and backfill the immense shortage of truck drivers. (According to the International Road Transport Union, the world was short more than 2.6 million truck drivers in 2021). If you live in the Southwestern United States, there is a good chance that your new coffee table, sofa, or winter sweater will be transported autonomously.

Ultimately, moving people and goods autonomously will have as much of an impact on our daily lives, economies, and societies as the invention of the car itself.

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