RINO, NOT WHITE SUPREMACY:

The gubernatorial races have more disheartening tidings for Republicans. Republicans were locked out of the governor's mansion in key swing states Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan. In Maryland and Massachusetts, governorships formerly held by Republicans were lost to Democrats in blowout margins. Arizona remains too close to call, as does Oregon (a seat that had seemed a possible Republican pick-up).

An incumbent Democratic president with an approval rating in the 40s, raging inflation, a mixed economic picture, and growing voter concerns about crime--how did it come to this for the GOP? Many structural factors suggested that 2022 would be a "wave" year, but Republican candidates were instead often stranded. Tuesday's results point to major underlying issues for the Republican Party, and the nation as a whole.

If this was a wave election, it might be considered a "normie" wave election. After a pandemic, widespread economic disruption, and years of hyper-polarized conflict in D.C., voters often rewarded candidates with political experience and a record of governing. Joe Biden in part won the White House by promising a return to "normalcy," and if "normalcy" didn't quite arrive by 2022, signs suggest that voters are still looking for it. Many Republican candidates were far from optimal from that perspective. In a number of GOP primaries, Donald Trump intervened to back candidates with whom he had a close personal relationship or who were willing to join in his campaign to delegitimize the 2020 election. Many of these candidates--from Mehmet Oz in Pennsylvania to Tudor Dixon in Michigan--ended up washing out.

Gubernatorial races often exerted a significant gravitational force on other elections. Having held almost the entirety of Ohio's political offices, Governor Mike DeWine embodies the "normie" Republican, and he won a smashing reelection victory--which probably helped boost political newcomer J. D. Vance in the Senate race. Georgia governor Brian Kemp defied Trump's effort to overturn the 2020 election in the Peach State and crushed a Trump-backed primary challenge. With a record of governing and opposing election nullification, Kemp beat Democratic Party favorite Stacey Abrams by eight points--significantly outperforming Senate nominee (and political newcomer) Herschel Walker.

Conversely, toxic or lackluster gubernatorial candidates likely inflicted pain elsewhere on the ticket. In Pennsylvania, Doug Mastriano won Trump's endorsement, but he repelled many Pennsylvanians. His 13-point loss was a millstone around the neck of Senate candidate Mehmet Oz (who did five points better than Mastriano, but not good enough to win). Tudor Dixon's ten-point loss to incumbent Michigan governor Gretchen Whitmer was accompanied by a bloodbath down the ticket. Republicans lost races for secretary of state and attorney general there, and Democrats may enjoy their first trifecta in the Michigan statehouse in 40 years.

Tuesday's results show how many voters are turned off by candidates who try to delegitimize past elections. For years, Stacey Abrams discounted the legitimacy of the 2018 election she lost by a razor-thin margin--and Brian Kemp won his rematch against her handily. Kemp and Georgia secretary of state Brad Raffensperger burnished their images as responsible holders of power by defending the results of the 2020 election. Fortunately for American democracy, swing voters (the ones candidates need to win elections) do not reward conspiracy theories that aim to nullify elections.

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