IT'S OUR PARTY:

Let's start with the House. In Colorado's 3rd District, Don Coram, a Republican state senator, forced Lauren Boebert to go through a primary challenge. Coram garnered 36 percent of the vote in that primary, then flipped to endorse independent-turned-Democrat Adam Frisch in the general election. The district--which Nate Silver rated as having a 3 percent chance to flip--is still too close to call, with Frisch at 49.8 percent. Because of Never Trump Republican voters.

In Washington's 3rd District (Nate Silver: 2 percent chance of flipping), a cohort of Republicans endorsed Democratic winner Marie Gluesenkamp Pérez and spoke out aggressively against her MAGA opponent.

In California's 41st (Nate Silver: 5 percent chance of flipping), Assemblyman Chad Mayes--who led the GOP in Sacramento just a few years ago--endorsed former Schwarzenegger aide Will Rollins over the incumbent Republican (and Star Wars bar patron) Ken Calvert. Rollins was at 49 percent on the sixth day of vote-counting.

Then there were the ticket-splitters. A merry band of Mike DeWine voters also pulled the lever for Tim Ryan while some former Republican officials crisscrossed Ohio explaining why J.D. Vance wasn't fit for office. While this group wasn't enough to push Ryan over the top, a slate of state legislative candidates rowing in that Republican-recruiting direction helped Democrats win both close House seats (Nate Silver forecast: 16 percent in OH-1, and 19 percent in OH-13).

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The odd truth about these midterms is that there actually was a red wave, both in who showed up (there were more Republican voters than Democrats) and in how people voted overall (Republicans will probably win the House popular vote by about 4 points).

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