October 30, 2022

JUST THE LATEST FETISH OF THE rIGHT TO DISAPPOINT THEM:

Lessons from the Russian gas debacle (Scott Sumner, 10/30/22, EconLib)


There are an increasing number of reports that Russia's attempt to use gas exports as a geopolitical weapon have backfired.  Here's Bloomberg:

Worse, Russia also tried to scare Ukraine's friends out of the fight by wielding its brass energy knuckles, causing oil and gas prices to soar. But the West is now prying that weapon out of Russia's hands, Clara Ferreira Marques writes, and will soon start bodying Russia with it. We've found workarounds for Russian energy; Europe is now swimming in so much gas it costs less than zero. Plus we've hurried up our embrace of renewables that will make Russia's fossil fuels obsolete. And being deprived of foreign dollars and expertise will mean more of those fuels stay in the ground.

Another Bloomberg article discusses the long run implications for Russia:

Russia will never go back to fossil fuel exports at levels seen in 2021. Its share of internationally traded gas is seen shrinking from 30% last year to half of that by 2030. The country exported over 7 million barrels per day of oil last year, but the IEA estimates that falls by a quarter by 2030, even in the least-demanding scenario. By the mid-2020s, North America is exporting more oil than Russia.

I see two important lessons from this fiasco

Posted by at October 30, 2022 5:08 PM

  

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