RETURNING TO W:

Last week Axios's Josh Kraushaar described an ongoing "seismic shift" in the two parties' coalitions. As outlined in a New York Times/Siena College poll, "Democrats now have a bigger advantage with white college graduates than they do with nonwhite voters." The Democratic Party's losses with Hispanics are remarkable. Whereas Obama won 71 percent of the Hispanic vote in 2012, and Biden won 65 percent in 2020, now the Hispanic vote is "statistically tied."

Moreover, there are good reasons to believe that Hispanic voters will continue to migrate to the GOP. As Ruy Teixeira described this week on his Substack, comprehensive issue polling from Echelon Insights demonstrates that strong progressives have substantially different political and cultural views from Hispanics.

Hispanic voters are far more likely to believe that America is "the greatest country in the world," far less likely to support defunding the police, far less likely to believe "racism is built into our society," and far less likely to believe that transgender athletes should play on sports teams that match their current gender identity. In most cases, the polling gap is just immense. 

What accounts for such monumental differences in beliefs in values? As my colleague Jonah Goldberg often (and rightly) says, we should reject monocausal explanations for complex social phenomena, but here's a factor that simply isn't discussed enough. The Democratic Party has a huge "God gap," and that God gap is driving a wedge between its white and nonwhite voters. 

Tweet   @brothersjudd