Stocks had a rough day Tuesday, and the alleged culprit is one we have seen with increasing frequency lately: A raft of good-looking economic data supposedly raises the likelihood of more big Fed rate hikes to come. This is part and parcel of a sentiment phenomenon we call the "pessimism of disbelief"--investors' tendency to see any good news through a negative lens. It is a hallmark of late downturns and early recoveries, and its prevalence today is a big reason we think this downturn's end is likely close by. When people dismiss good news as bad, it shows a big gap between sentiment and reality--substantial room for positive surprise. What did people overlook in the latest data? Read on!