PEREMOHA DAY:

Many observers expected Russian troops to escalate their attacks in an attempt to blast their way to some sort of battlefield achievement before the annual Victory Day parade, as a gift to Vladimir Putin. Since it was clear that major prizes like Kyiv, Kharkiv and Odesa are beyond Russia's reach -- likely for good -- Mariupol was the logical target.

But even that battered city has proven too tall a task for Russia. Ukrainian forces in the city's Azovstal steel plant somehow remain in the fight, and Russian troops surrounding the complex have opted not to risk heavy casualties trying to storm it.

The other expectation for the Victory Day celebration in Moscow's Red Square was that Putin would make a major announcement about the war in Ukraine. Some anticipated a declaration that the country was at war, opening the door for a general call-up of reservists. Others expected Russia's leader to declare victory and give himself a way out of an operation that has been bungled from the start.

That didn't happen either. (It must be emphasized that no Russian officials promised any major announcements on Victory Day -- only outside observers.)

"When May 9 came, it was quite clear that things were not as usual," said Johan Norberg, senior military analyst at the Swedish Defence Research Agency and a leading expert on the Russian Army.

One inescapable indication that something was off was the cancellation of the parade's planned Russian Air Force flyover, said Norberg. The Kremlin blamed supposedly inclement weather, but anyone watching footage of the parade could see that the sun was glinting off Putin's bald head as he waved to the thousands of soldiers lined up in tight rows.

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