CAN'T HAVE A CLASH OF CIVILIZATIONS WHEN THERE IS ONLY ONE:

The Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) -- a regional bloc of China, India, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Pakistan, Russia, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan -- is Beijing's umbrella organization for this part of the world and represents a balance of power between Beijing and Moscow, the region's two hegemons.

The SCO has struggled at times with finding an overriding mission, and fallout from the war risks derailing that further, especially as Beijing must now navigate between backing Russia and embracing many SCO members' desire for more distance from Moscow.

"Due to its size and geography, China's role [in Central Asia] will grow [following the war], but the SCO won't have many success stories to point to," Temur Umarov, a fellow at the Carnegie Moscow Center, told me. "Beijing is also now seen as a supporter of Russia and as a country that isn't doing much to restrain Moscow when many [SCO members] are seeing it as a potential threat."

Why It Matters: China's footprint in Eurasia and the future of the SCO are just one example of repercussions from the war that could hinder wider Chinese goals.

While China grapples with a sustained economic slowdown due to COVID-19 lockdowns, the war has pushed up costs for Chinese businesses and contributed to fading overseas demand for their exports.

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