GET JABBED; MASK UP:

There are still a few small voices out there crying for harsh containment measures, and of course you should still wear a mask inside, but something tells me that this one isn't going to be contained. Tom Frieden, former head of the CDC, says this is one for the history books -- even with a fairly large percent of our populace either vaccinated or bearing immunity from a prior infection, Omicron is spreading "as fast as measles in a non-immune population". And measles is the most contagious disease hitherto known. The question of whether we should "let 'er rip" is a bit beside the point -- by the time our authorities decide what to do, it will already have ripped.

That's the bad news. So...what's the good news?

The first piece of good news is that vaccine boosters offer substantial protection against Omicron. Studies are showing that a third dose of mRNA vaccine (Pfizer or Moderna) restores a substantial amount of immunity. A booster reduces the risk of severe disease by about 80%. Part of that is because boosters activate T-cell immunity, which confers protection even after antibody levels wane (Here's a cool paper explaining why scientists now think that vaccines activate T-cells that work against all varieties of Covid).

So get your booster right now if you haven't gotten it already -- remember that Covid vaccine shots take at least a week to start working, and Omicron is spreading insanely fast. In fact, some public health officials are now calling for booster mandates -- a welcome change from a month ago.

The second piece of good news is that for better or worse, the Omicron wave could be over pretty soon. As epidemiologist Trevor Bedford explains in this thread, evidence from South Africa's Gauteng province and from London suggest that Omicron waves shoot up and crash even more quickly than basic theory predicts.

But the question is how much damage will be done by that enormous, rapid wave. And here comes the third piece of good news: Omicron probably is less severe than previous strains of Covid.

In my previous Omicron posts, I warned people to be highly skeptical of the initial reports that Omicron was less severe. But new evidence is now coming in, and while we should still maintain a healthy degree of uncertainty, top experts are now agreeing that the data looks encouraging.

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