HAVEN:

The Brazils are on the vanguard of climate migration. In decades to come, people fleeing the growing risks of climate change will shift the population of the United States. Experts expect that many will come to the Upper Valley.

Erich Osterberg, a climate scientist at Dartmouth, detailed the climate pressures that will force people to choose to live with extreme weather or move away. Hurricanes barrel against the southeastern coast with increasing frequency. Wildfires consume swaths of the West each year. The stress on water municipalities gets more extreme each year as the megadrought in the Southwest drags on.

"We have lots of water up here. We know that rainfall is increasing with climate change, and we do have a problem with flash flooding and river flooding as rainfall increases," Osterberg said. "But that is a problem that is probably easier to deal with than widespread drought."

Studies have identified northern New England, along with Alaska, as some of the most climate-resilient places to live, he said. Research suggests that most climate migrants in the U.S. will likely move within 100 miles from their home, so he hypothesized that the Upper Valley may see an inflow from Boston and New York.

The Environmental Protection Agency published its "Cumulative Resilience Screening Index" in 2020. The EPA scored each county in the United States based on factors ranging from climate risk to the resilience of infrastructure to the effectiveness of local government. Grafton, Sullivan, Orange and Windsor counties were all a relatively safe midnight blue on the color-coded map.

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