A DEVASTATING, BUT ACCURATE, ADMISSION:

 Jeff Roe

When we talk about this race, I'll just round off some of the math: About 27 percent of the vote was nonwhite, [and] about 27 percent of the vote is rural. Now you've got a wash. Now we're fighting over the suburbs.

[D]isappointment in -- or opposition to -- Biden's presidency may have been the main driver of this outcome, as is often the case in off-year Virginia elections.

In truth, Youngkin might not be as replicable as he appears. The reason is candidate quality. For a political rookie, Youngkin has mad skills. He has a preternatural ability to stay on message. He is positive and optimistic without coming across as treacly or sentimental. I have yet to see him frown. He has what Reagan adviser John Sears called "negative ability"--the power to deflect, repel, and ignore personal attacks. Nothing seems to get under his skin. Politicians who have this quality drive the opposition nuts. You could sense the Democrats' frustration when Biden told a Virginia audience that extremism can come "in a smile and a fleece vest." Maybe that's right, but the average Virginian doesn't look at Glenn Youngkin and see a neo-Nazi or a Proud Boy. The average Virginian sees an approachable and energetic father of four with commonsensical plans to improve the quality of life in his home state. That's the type of profile any candidate, Republican or Democrat, ought to aim for. But it's easier said than done.

Both his opponent and the national environment helped Youngkin. Terry McAuliffe learned how difficult it is to win nonconsecutive terms--something that may be of interest to the ruler of Mar-a-Lago. And McAuliffe clearly believed that demographics are destiny and that Virginia was irrevocably blue. He ran on airy evocations of a pleasant past and fiery denunciations of Youngkin as a Trump-like threat to institutional stability and social peace. McAuliffe's inability to find a galvanizing issue led him to run an idea-free campaign based on mobilizing Democratic interest groups. His accusations of racism and nuttery turned out many Democrats to the polls. Just not enough to win.

The general deterioration of Biden's presidency hurt McAuliffe. The inflation, incompetence, and cultural radicalism dragging down Biden's job approval rating are taking other Democrats with him.

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