WHEN YOU'RE UNCOMPETITIVE WITH THE EDUCATED:

Republicans have a dilemma as states start redrawing their political maps: Draw as many Republican districts as they can now--even if it makes them vulnerable to demographic changes in the future--or draw safer, more future-proof districts for Republican incumbents, even if it means ceding a few more seats to Democrats now.

America's rapidly changing suburbs are largely where those decisions will be made. Suburban voters will be critical in deciding if Democrats hold on to their slim House majority in next year's midterm elections. They're also at the center of contentious redistricting battles under way right now as states propose new congressional maps. How states connect suburbs to dense, heavily-Democratic cities and rural areas safe for Republicans could determine House majorities for the next 10 years.

In the last redistricting cycle, Republicans opted for maximizing gains in many states by combining Democratic-leaning urban areas with enough suburban and Republican-leaning rural areas to draw districts that delivered comfortable victories for their candidates. But over the decade, demographic changes shifted many of those seats toward Democrats. The suburbs voted around 5 percentage points more Democratic in the 2020 presidential election compared to 2012, and new Census data shows these areas are among the fastest growing in the country and more diverse than ever.

Tweet   @brothersjudd