October 30, 2021
TOO OLD BEFORE THEY EVER GOT RICH:
Peak China: The Communist party may be facing the sort of decline it wishes on the West (Ian Williams, 30 October 2021, Spectator)
You can't have a Clash of Civilizations when there is only one.There are reports that China is once again bringing in coal from Australia, which would a humiliating climbdown after it banned Australian imports following Canberra's call last year for an independent enquiry into the origins of the coronavirus.Glasgow was always going to be tough for Xi. China is the world's biggest polluter, responsible for 27 per cent of global emissions of greenhouse gases. It is opening new coal-fired power stations and increasing emissions at an annual rate that is greater than the savings of the rest of the world put together. Last year, coal plants with a combined capacity of 37.75 gigawatts were retired globally, more than half in the United States and European Union, according to an analysis by Global Energy Monitor, which studies fossil fuel trends. During that time, China opened 38.4 gigawatts of new plants - that's three times more new coal fired capacity than the rest of the world combined. It is currently building new coal plants at more than 60 locations across the countryChina has pledged that its greenhouse gas emissions will reach their highest point before 2030 and the country will reach carbon neutrality before 2060. It announced some cosmetic changes to that programme in the run-up to COP26, light on detail and heavy with caveats, leaving little doubt that Beijing is now prioritising its economy.In the run-up to COP26, Xi said China would no longer finance coal-powered plants internationally. This was presented as a concession and eagerly embraced as such by the West, desperate for signs of Beijing's cooperation. It was no such thing. Construction had already dried up because of the soaring price of coal and the fall in price of renewables, as well as concern over debt among the recipients of Beijing's largesse.China certainly talks the talk on clean energy and sustainability. It does generate more energy from solar power than any other country, and is seeking to corner the global market in many green technologies, but it remains addicted to coal. Fossil fuels still account for 85 per cent of energy used, and coal represents 57 per cent of that. It consumes as much coal as the rest of the world combined, and has given few details of how it intends to kick the habit - rendering its pledges meaningless.Taken in isolation, China's energy crunch would be challenge enough for the Communist party, but it comes at a time of multiple and growing problems. The bursting of the country's property bubble continues apace. Evergrande, the world most indebted property company, teeters on the brink of bankruptcy, kept in a state of suspended animation by a Communist party terrified of the consequences of a crash. And the contagion is spreading, with other property companies unable to pay their debts. It is not just that property and property-related goods and service are a driver of growth, representing 28 per cent of the economy, it is that Evergrande is in many ways the Chinese economy in microcosm - a scary combination of eye-watering debt, lack of transparency and diminishing returns on wasteful investment.Even if the Party manages to muddle through, bailing out and shuffling distressed assets on to state-owned banks and other pliable entities, the country could face years of relative economic stagnation.It also comes at a time when the Party has taken aim at some of the country's most dynamic companies, from Alibaba, the king of e-commerce, to private tutoring platforms. There are multiple reasons for this, but it essentially boils downs to the Party asserting greater control, particularly over data, and a further centralisation of power around Xi. Whether this is conducive to creating the sort of domestic-driven innovation economy China aspires to have must be doubtful - especially when it is increasingly cut off from the Western IP that is has so easily been able to steal, copy or otherwise acquire in the past.
Posted by Orrin Judd at October 30, 2021 7:20 AM
