October 28, 2021

NOT TO MENTION...:

The strategic hole at the center of 'Dune' (Daniel W. Drezner, Oct. 28th, 2021, Washington Post)

I get the idea of promoting a rival to a position where they find themselves in greater political peril. This happens in both democracies and military dictatorships. In juntas, sometimes military rulers will promote possible rivals to battle commands with the expectation that they will either flounder or be killed. In the United States, the Obama administration's appointment of Jon Huntsman to be U.S. ambassador to China could have been viewed as a way to neutralize a potential general election appointment.

Here we get to the flaw in the plot. Promoting a rival to put them in danger is one thing. Promoting a rival so that they control the single-most important raw material in the galaxy makes no sense whatsoever. Anyone who knows anything about the concept of weaponized interdependence knows that giving House Atreides even temporary sovereignty over Arrakis gives them control over the most important chokepoint in the galactic political economy. It is way too big a risk to take just to dispatch a possible rival. Just because the surprise attack worked does not mean it was a good idea.

There are additional problems with this strategy. If the Emperor is trying to eliminate House Atreides without getting his hands dirty, why commit crack imperial Sardaukar troops to the operation? Even if they are in disguise, the chances of them being identified -- like, say, Vladimir Putin's "little green men" -- would be pretty high, thereby getting the Emperor's hands pretty dirty.

Most importantly, a violent recapturing of Arrakis turns a troubled occupation into an even riskier enterprise. As Emily Meierding demonstrated in "The Oil Wars Myth," it is difficult for an occupying force to extract resources -- and spice harvesting on Arrakis seems way more difficult than drilling for oil in the Middle East. To paraphrase a former president, the notion that the Emperor can withdraw Harkonnen forces, then reinvade and simple "take the spice" does not hold up.

it's 8,000 years from now and no one has synthesized the most valuable commodity in the Universe?

Posted by at October 28, 2021 7:52 AM

  

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