KNOWING YOUR ALLIES:

All eyes are now focused on the US position in Iraq and its active involvement in Syria and Libya. Arab assessments are rather negative, expecting an all-out American military retraction in the coming months. Despite the use of honeyed diplomatic statements by the Biden Administration, the real developments on the ground are worrying. Saudi Arabia and Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman are sure to be on edge in the coming weeks. The US' apparent decision to put its long-term strategic relationship with Saudi Arabia under pressure is a surprising one. It has been confirmed that the US has removed its most advanced missile defense system and Patriot batteries from Saudi Arabia in recent weeks. The removal of the defense system was done despite repeated requests made by Saudi officials and royals to keep the weapon systems in place to counter continued air attacks by Yemen's Houthi rebels.

The Yemeni rebels, who are officially designated as terrorists and widely known to be supported by Iran, have been stepping up their rocket and drone attacks on Saudi civil and commercial targets (airports and oil and gas targets) again. The US unilateral decision to redeploy the anti-missile systems and Patriots from Prince Sultan Air Base outside of Riyadh is remarkable, especially taking into account that most US-Gulf allies are worried about the fall-out of the Afghanistan disaster.

Analysts in Riyadh, Abu Dhabi, and Bahrain are also very worried about possible new US plans to even remove large parts of the tens of thousands of American forces in the region, now in place as a bulwark against Iran and possible insurgencies. Biden's focus on his new military power theatre in Asia is the underlying basis for the ongoing troop movements. Most Gulf states, especially Saudi Arabia and the UAE, are especially worried due to the unsuccessful Iran JCPOA talks, leaving Tehran in a position to increase its nuclear programs. 

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