CONFEDERACY OF DUNCES:

Disease forecasting, especially with an emerging new pathogen, is always fraught with uncertainty. But there are signs that the Delta variant's summer tear through the unvaccinated American South is the first phase of a protracted and scary new chapter in the coronavirus pandemic.

It is one that could eventually consume most of the nation.

This latest fourth wave began, among other places, in southern Missouri in June, before spreading quickly across conservative southern states where vaccinations among those under the age of 65 are almost 40 percentage points lower than in the Northeast. Among those aged 12-17, the gap is even greater.

Now, some 100,000 Americans are hospitalized with COVID-19, a number almost as high as during January's COVID-19 peak, and we are at over 1,500 deaths per day and climbing. Even worse: The spike continues to spread both north, consuming the Midwestern states of Indiana, Illinois, and Ohio; and west into Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas. At least one other new front of COVID-19 surge has also begun following the Sturgis Rally in South Dakota, and is now at risk of entering adjacent areas.

One of the ways to gauge the severity of a COVID-19 surge in a particular state or city is how busy funeral homes become -- and in Florida, according to CBS News, employees of funeral homes are absolutely swamped.

In July, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reported that one in five new COVID-19 cases in the United States was occurring in Florida. Ron DeSantis, Florida's far-right Republican governor, has been receiving a great deal of criticism for his response to the COVID-19 surge; DeSantis has opposed social distancing measures, forbidden public schools from having mask mandates, and tried to score cheap political points with his MAGA base by railing against expert immunologist Dr. Anthony Fauci.

CBS News' Khristopher J. Brooks explains, "In the last week of August, Florida hospitals averaged 279 deaths per day -- up from 52 in July, according to the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services. The spike in fatalities, although not yet definitively linked to the coronavirus, is strongly suspected to stem from the ongoing surge in cases caused by the Delta variant. Overall, the state has reported a total over 44,000 coronavirus deaths over the course of the pandemic, according to a New York Times tracker. COVID-19 has claimed so many lives in Florida that funeral directors said there aren't enough hours in the day to schedule all the services, a local TV station reported."

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