June 15, 2021

THE LUDDITES ALWAYS RUN OUT OF SABOTS:

Ford vs. Tesla (Ben Carlson, 6/14/21, A Wealth of Commonsense)


I've been wrong about plenty of stuff when it comes to prognosticating about the future of the markets or specific companies.1

So I'm not typically one to pay myself on the back when I get something right. But allow me to pat myself on the back for getting something right.

When Disney first announced they were going to release a new streaming service I immediately became bullish on the idea.

There was no discounted cash flow analysis or deep dive into industry dynamics that led me to this conclusion.

It was the fact that I have three little kids and little kids love watching Disney movies. Not only do they love watching Disney movies, but they love watching them over and over and over and over again until all of the songs are seared into your brain for all of eternity.

So I knew parents would be buyers of Disney+ because they had no other choice. Throw in all of the devoted fans to Stars Wars and Marvel content and this felt like a home run.

Disney originally estimated they could reach 60 to 90 million subscribers five years after launch.

Sixteen months after the service started, Disney+ surpassed 100 million subscribers this past spring. It's a juggernaut and now in the conversation with Netflix when it comes to the biggest, most dominant streaming services.

Netflix was the upstart that forced Disney's hand into jumping into streaming. Both companies can co-exist but the success of Netflix has certainly added competition to the space they created.

I think a similar dynamic is taking place with electric vehicles.

Ford is to Tesla in the EV space as Disney is to Netflix in the streaming space.

Posted by at June 15, 2021 7:59 AM

  

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