June 1, 2021
THE GND IS TOO CAUTIOUS:
Why electric cars will take over sooner than you think (Justin Rowlatt, 6/01/21, BBC)
[W]hat makes the end of the internal combustion engine inevitable is a technological revolution. And technological revolutions tend to happen very quickly.Look at the internet.By my reckoning, the EV market is about where the internet was around the late 1990s or early 2000s.Back then, there was a big buzz about this new thing with computers talking to each other.Jeff Bezos had set up Amazon, and Google was beginning to take over from the likes of Altavista, Ask Jeeves and Yahoo. Some of the companies involved had racked up eye-popping valuations.For those who hadn't yet logged on it all seemed exciting and interesting but irrelevant - how useful could communicating by computer be? After all, we've got phones!But the internet, like all successful new technologies, did not follow a linear path to world domination. It didn't gradually evolve, giving us all time to plan ahead.Its growth was explosive and disruptive, crushing existing businesses and changing the way we do almost everything. And it followed a familiar pattern, known to technologists as an S-curve.It's actually an elongated S.The idea is that innovations start slowly, of interest only to the very nerdiest of nerds. EVs are on the shallow sloping bottom end of the S here.For the internet, the graph begins at 22:30 on 29 October 1969. That's when a computer at the University of California in LA made contact with another in Stanford University a few hundred miles away.
Posted by Orrin Judd at June 1, 2021 5:59 AM
