[R]oberts wrote two opinions delivering long-sought victories to conservatives in Seila v. CFPB, where he broadened the President's power to fire the heads of administrative agencies and in Espinoza v. Montana Department of Revenue where he held that religious schools could not be prohibited from participating in programs in which a state contributed to private school funding. No one outside the beltway cares much about the removal power of the President, and the exclusion of religious schools is unpopular among the public, though not among academics of course.

Even in the DACA and abortion cases, Roberts may have been creating a foundation for conservative victories at a more propitious time. The DACA case strengthened the requirements for agency explanations of its decisions, which may be used to constrain the administrative state. His decisive opinion for himself alone in the abortion case subtly cut back on the balancing test that would likely invalidate more restrictions on abortions. John Roberts was a history major at Harvard and his model is John Marshall. He wants to leave the Court as strong as he found it, even if that means bobbing and weaving to achieve his jurisprudential and ideological goals.

Chief justices have more power than other justices because they have the right to assign the opinion when they are in the majority, choosing the justice who is most likely to write an opinion that meshes with their interests. But Roberts has greater power than most of his predecessors because he is ideologically in the middle of the Court. His vote is very often decisive. As a result, he can often dictate the result in politically charged cases that come out 5-4. Even better, from his perspective, he can write separately, depriving the Court of any majority opinion that will constrain him in the future. That maneuver leaves him freer to control the results in the next case in the area. Because he will enjoy this power for some time, his time horizon is even longer than most chiefs.

Even beyond deciding cases, Roberts' median position allows him to influence when a case will be heard. While it takes the votes of only four justices to hear a case, justices may be reluctant to do so unless they know where Roberts is going to come down. His power explains why the Court declined the opportunity to hear any Second Amendment cases next term, although all the conservative justices other than Roberts are on record expressing concern about the grudging manner in which many lower courts have treated Second Amendment rights. Roberts, however, probably views expanding Second Amendment doctrine as too controversial at this time, even if he agrees with the conservatives on the merits.

Because of his position as the median justice, Roberts is the most powerful chief justice for at least the last 150 years. We can expect him to wield this power in the future as he has this year--deliberately and craftily--to insulate the Court from backlash while incrementally pursuing many conservative goals.