IT'S THE ECONOMY...:

[Adnan Tabatabai, Iran expert and managing director of the Bonn-based research center Carpo] , who advises EU institutions, the German government and political foundations on Iran-related issues, added that the hard-liners as a group are not as united as they often appear.

"In the 2020 parliamentary elections, the Guardian Council had allowed a very narrow field of candidates," Tabatabai said. "But, shortly after parliament convened, new rifts suddenly opened up within the conservatives. Among the hard-liners, there are different factions vying for more power." 

Hard-liners, for instance, haven't been able to agree on the composition of the parliamentary presidium for a long time. They fight each other in various parliamentary committees and accuse each other of mismanagement and abuse of power.

Tabatabai expects the rivalries in the hard-liner camp to erupt after Raisi takes office in August and forms a government.

"But we can assume that Raisi will face less opposition when he begins his work on important foreign policy decisions," Tabatabai said.  

Raisi belongs to the ultraconservative camp, which has harshly criticized Rouhani since the 2015 international nuclear deal between Iran and world powers began to unravel.

But, even though Raisi had sharply criticized the agreement, during the election campaign -- like all other candidates -- he stressed his intention to abide by the pact.

"He will need the restoration of the nuclear agreement so that sanctions can be removed and he can get something going economically in the short term. At the end of the day, that's what people are most concerned about," Tabatabai said.

The sixth round of talks in Vienna to save the nuclear agreement concluded on Sunday, with participants hoping to reach an agreement by the end of July.

What kind of regional policy Iran adopts under Raisi's presidency would also play a critical role in determining the security situation in the Middle East, Tabatabai stressed.

"I would see the ongoing security talks between the Saudi and Iranian military apparatus as the most important thing," he said.

"This means that in terms of regional policy, one also relies on a policy of detente, and I would also see this under President Raisi," Tabatabai said. "Those who are leading these dialogues are coming from the Foreign Ministry and the security apparatus and nothing will change there even after a change of government." 

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