hISTORY eNDS EVERYWHERE:

With the Tatmadaw's ability to reassert its control freely without concern about external pressures from the likes of the UN, the question is why has the military orchestrated this coup now?

The reasons appear linked to the perceived erosion of the military's indirect rule. This erosion has been prompted by several events, such as the banning in 2018 of military commander Min Aung Hlaing and 18 other officials from using social media after they incited ethnic and religious hatred against minority groups such as the Rohingya.

This was followed by a UN investigation that confirmed Min Aung Hlaing would be investigated and prosecuted for genocide over a crackdown on Rohingya Muslims.

These factors, as well as the NLD's landslide win and the fact that Min Aung Hlaing will this year reach retirement age, put him in a vulnerable position. Given his lack of public support at home and his lack of popularity abroad (the US banned him in 2019), and with no guarantee of immunity from prosecution once he retires, this coup would appear to be the last desperate act of his dying career.

At a time when the country needs unity, peace and stability in the face of a pandemic, the military has instead sown mistrust, fear and chaos. Even at the height of its power - and with the support of the people - it proved incapable of bringing stability or prosperity to Myanmar during its 50-year rule, eventually leading to the popular uprisings of 1988 and 2008. So it is unlikely that the military will prove any better equipped to provide for the country's needs in its current form.

Given Aung San Suu Kyi's proven support, evidenced by the overwhelming mandate she received in the most recent two elections, the military might be unable to contain mass protests and maintain control. [...]

The military's support appears to be waning. In the past its powers survived because the rank and file within the Tatmadaw didn't rebel. But this is a new dynamic. A popular leader who won two consecutive elections by overwhelming majority has been thrown into jail. Meanwhile the country's coronavirus response is dwindling, and civil disobedience and mass protests are brewing.

If this prompts defection of the Tatmadaw's rank and file then the world may witness a profound tectonic shift in Myanmar's political landscape, opening the door to the prospect of long-term freedoms, justice and democracy.

Tweet   @brothersjudd