In spite of breathless media reports of a surge, divorce appears to be down in 2020. The initial data we have from the five states that report divorce statistics in real time indicates a decline in divorce filings for 2020, with year-to-date filings down 19 percent in Florida, 13 percent in Rhode Island, 12 percent in Oregon and 9 percent in Missouri. While divorces are up 9 percent in Arizona, that increase began in late 2019, before the pandemic. Though states are returning to pre-pandemic levels of divorce, most haven't gotten there yet.

Divorces also fell during the Great Recession, then went up a bit as the economy recovered and couples got divorces they had been putting off, before turning downward yet again. The net result? Divorce fell more than 20 percent following the Great Recession; today we are nearly at 1970 levels of divorce. Despite the strains the pandemic is causing, we anticipate that a similar decline in divorce could occur in its wake. In a survey we conducted in September of 1,300 American women ages 18 to 44, we found that 45 percent of married women said the pandemic had made them less likely to break up with their partner, vs. just 5 percent who said it had made a breakup more likely.

Tough and traumatic times can change our priorities, our perspective and our devotion to friends and family for the better. When we face trials with a strong social network, the right perspective or a deep faith, as Jonathan Haidt notes in "The Happiness Hypothesis," adversity is more likely to "lead to growth, strength, joy, and self-improvement," rather than the opposite.

One silver lining in an otherwise dark year is that most couples seem to be emerging from the crucible of covid-19 not with weaker unions but stronger ones -- and dreams for a stronger family future in the undoubtedly difficult days ahead.