OTHER THAN THAT, HOW ARE YOU ENJOYING NATIONALISM?:

This past week, Illinois' largest university, the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, reported 780 new COVID-19 cases on its downstate campus following the start of classes on August 24th. 

The bad news followed the recommendation of two University of Illinois physicists who advocated for opening the university. They had stated their models demonstrated that active cases at any one time would remain below 100, a figure they described as the "worst-case scenario."

So how could it be that in less than a week, the cases were seven times what the physicists predicted? For one, epidemiological models are tough, and the continual emergence of new information makes accurate prediction even tougher.

But allow me to provide another explanation: Two men who had no public health or epidemiologic expertise decided they were adequately suited to dictate the public health response to COVID-19 and shape university and state policy accordingly.  

Similarly, this week - as Israel hits a daily record of new infections - dozens of Israeli physicians and scientists signed an open letter calling on Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's coalition cabinet to not impose a new countrywide lockdown and to remove social distancing measures (Israeli Physicians, Scientists Warn Against Lockdown, Call to Adopt Swedish Model).  [...]

A study in Nature found that across 11 countries, over three million deaths have been averted due to lockdowns, school closures, and social distancing measures since the start of the pandemic. Furthermore, existing evidence finds that loosening restrictions too quickly can increase mortality for at-risk populations as well as spawn a new wave of infections. In fact, part of the reason Israel went from an exemplar in its response to the pandemic to a visible failure has to do with the fact that restrictions were lifted too quickly. 

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