September 20, 2020


Iowa Poll: Theresa Greenfield narrowly leads Joni Ernst in hyper-competitive Senate race (Brianne Pfannenstiel, 09/20/2020, Des Moines Register)

Democrat Theresa Greenfield leads Republican U.S. Sen. Joni Ernst by 3 percentage points in a Senate race that appears to be among the most competitive in the country.   

With just over six weeks to Election Day, the new Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll shows Greenfield leading 45% to 42% among likely voters. Another 3% say they would vote for someone else, 2% say they would not vote in the race and 7% are unsure.

Despite heavy campaigning and millions spent on television ads, the results are largely unchanged since June, when Greenfield led Ernst 46% to 43%. 

Running against an unpopular incumbent president, Ronald Reagan not only blew the race wide open in the final weeks but carried with him a notoriously week group of Senate candidates--the nominations were considered to have no value because the odds of winning were so long--who won seats that no one thought were competitive.  The question this year is not whether Democrats will win the races where they are ahead, but whether Republican incumbents who seem safe or safeish will lose too: not NC but SC; not IA but KS.. 

Why it could be a Biden blowout in November (Harry Enten, September 20, 2020, CNN)

A new ABC News/Washington Post poll from Minnesota finds Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden with a 57% to 41% lead over President Donald Trump among likely voters.

Two other Minnesota polls released over the last few weeks by CBS News/YouGov and New York Times/Siena College have Biden up by nine points.

What's the point: The Trump campaign has made a significant investment into turning Minnesota red, after Trump lost it by 1.5 points in 2016. The polling shows his efforts are not working. [...]

If you were to look at the polling right now, there's a pretty clear picture. Biden has leads of somewhere between five and eight points in a number of states Trump won four years ago: Arizona, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Those plus the states Hillary Clinton won get Biden to about 290 electoral votes.

If you add on the other states where Biden has at least a nominal edge in the averages (Florida and North Carolina), Biden is above 330 electoral votes.
View 2020 presidential election polling

That's not quite at blowout levels, but look at the polling in places like Georgia, Iowa, Ohio and Texas. We're not really talking about those places right now, even though one or both campaigns have fairly major advertising investments planned down the stretch in all four. 

Posted by at September 20, 2020 8:41 AM