THEY'RE INCIPIENT AMERICANS...:

For the first time in history, the 21st century will see a decline in global population not because of wars or pandemics. The number of people is expected to peak at 9.7 billion in 2064, then shrink to 8.8 billion by 2100, because the fertility rate (the average number of children a woman delivers over her lifetime) is expected to fall below the number needed to maintain population levels.

Because fewer children will be born, there will be a narrower base of working-age adults ages 20 to 65 years old, and a much larger retirement-age population. One of the economic consequences of this inverted population pyramid is that major industrialized nations will struggle to sustain the necessary workforces to maintain GDP. Without strong economies, those nations will find it challenging to provide health and social systems that expanding elderly populations require. The way to address this problem is for nations to adopt two strategies: supporting women who wish or need to combine parenting and paid employment, and having more open immigration policies.  

These are among the findings of a study published recently in The Lancet by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, part of the University of Washington's School of Medicine. 

Two countries facing this demographic dilemma, the United States and China, are competing to be the world's leading economic superpower. Both face declining fertility rates. While the U.S. has historically welcomed immigrants and has built a strong sector of the economy on their labor, China has no such tradition, relying instead on internal rural-to-urban migration to power its economic growth.

For this reason, although China is predicted to surpass the U.S. as the world's largest economy in 2035, the United States will regain the top spot toward the end of the century -- but only if immigration continues to sustain its economy.

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