August 18, 2020


South Carolina Senate Moves From Likely to Lean Republican (Jessica Taylor, August 17, 2020, Cook Political Report)

A Quinnipiac University poll conducted from July 30-August 3 showed the race tied at 44 percent a piece. Graham's job approval was also narrowly underwater (47 percent disapproving and 43 percent approving), and he was losing independents by 10 points to Harrison. The Democratic nominee is also winning women by 5 points, but that slim advantage seems to be driven by Black women, since Graham is still winning white women by 26 points. Republicans also argue that the poll undersampled GOP voters and said their own polling shows a more sizable lead for Graham. 

Two Democratic surveys last month also suggested the race was tightening, and private Democratic pollings shows the same thing. An internal survey from Cornell Belcher at brilliant corners Research & Strategies (conducted July 13-19) for Harrison's campaign showed Graham with a 43 to 41 percent lead in a four-way race (including a Libertarian and a Constitution Party candidate), and also noted that Harrison was leading by 19 points among college-educated women and 7 points among suburban voters. An Anzalone Liszt Grove survey (conducted July 5-20) for the Lindsey Must Go super PAC showed Graham with a 49%-45% edge, underscoring still why it is much easier for a Republican than a Democrat to come close to 50% in the state. However, Democrats hope that with third-party choices on the ballot, that threshold will drop, but Republicans say they aren't worried about such a scenario. 

Presidential polling shows a much closer race than President Trump's 14 point win over Hillary Clinton four years ago. Those same Senate surveys show Trump's lead is now between just 5 and 7 points

Posted by at August 18, 2020 4:12 PM