August 15, 2020

BECAUSE HE'S NOT A REPUBLICAN:

A big sign Trump is a weak candidate (Harry Enten, August 15, 2020, CNN)

[A]t least one key indicator suggests Trump is, indeed, doing worse than the average Republican would be doing in the same conditions -- Trump doesn't seem to be receiving the average boost an incumbent does compared to his party brethren in the House.

Look at the live interview polls (and all surveys, for that matter) taken this summer that asked about race for the presidency and the race for Congress. Counting each pollster only once in the average, former Vice President Joe Biden leads Trump by 10 points in these polls. Democratic House candidates are ahead of the Republicans by 8 points on the generic congressional ballot in these same surveys.

This goes in tandem with the fact that Republican candidates for the House are less likely than Democratic candidates to release internal polls that include a presidential result. In theory, this would indicate that Trump is weak in their districts.

The fact that Biden's lead is wider than the House Democrats' edge is unusual. If it holds, it would be historic.

You'd expect that Trump would be doing better than Republicans running in the House. The simple reason is that more Democrats (i.e. the majority party) have an incumbency advantage in the House, while Trump enjoys that same advantage for the presidency.

The rest of the ticket ran ahead of him in 2016 as well, dragging him to office in their wake.

Posted by at August 15, 2020 5:36 PM

  

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