July 13, 2020

MAKING THESE THE LAST FEW MONTHS HE CAN REALLY INDULGE HIS BIGOTRY:

The Case That Trump Really Is Toast, and That He Probably Knows It (John Ziegler, Jul 12th, 2020, Mediate)

With a 56% disapproval rating, that obviously means that currently well over half the country would REALLY not like to vote for him. Consequently, Trump's base of voters has shrunk just enough to where he currently just cannot get there from here.

It isn't so much that Trump, as he has been all year, is losing to Joe Biden by a significant margin in the popular vote polls, it is that the extremely well-known incumbent president has somehow not cracked 41% in any poll since June 24th. If this race was an amusement park ride, Trump's current support would not be tall enough to even be allowed entry.

The battleground states tell a remarkably similar story, with Trump's average not currently topping 42% in Pennsylvania, Michigan, or Wisconsin, the very key states he won in 2016. Even more ominously, he is only averaging 43% in Florida, a state where, if he loses, it is nearly inconceivable to get the 270 Electoral College votes needed for re-election.

There is also no indication that recent events will do anything but depress Trump's numbers even further. His shockingly brazen and overtly corrupt (especially for a man who got elected promising to "Drain the Swamp!") commutation of the prison sentence for Roger Stone's felony perjury convictions indicates that Trump is so politically clueless that he can't get himself out of this mess, or, perhaps more likely, he actually knows that he is not going to get re-elected and is starting not to care about how his actions are perceived.

Maybe the strongest part of the case that Trump now needs an "Act of God" to beat Biden is that almost all of his possible escape hatches have been already closed off.



Posted by at July 13, 2020 12:00 AM

  

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