July 18, 2020

IN 1980, DEMOCRATS THOUGHT THERE WAS SUCH A THING AS SAFE SENATE SEATS:

Surging Democrats expand Senate targets to GOP states (ALAN FRAM, 7/18/20, AP) 

And while it's early and well-known senators can differentiate themselves from an unpopular president atop their ticket, Democrats are defending just 12 Senate seats this November to Republicans' 23. The GOP controls the Senate 53-47.

"Donald Trump's failed handling of the coronavirus crisis has changed everything," said Democratic pollster Geoffrey Garin. He said GOP senators are linked too closely to Trump, leaving him "pleased and surprised by the willingness of so many Republicans to go down with the ship."

Democrats have at least a puncher's chance of grabbing Republican-held seats in four states Trump won by double digits: Alaska, Kansas, Kentucky and South Carolina. They have an even shot at ousting GOP Sen. Steve Daines in Montana, which Trump carried by 20 percentage points, and long-shot hopes of retaining their most endangered senator, Doug Jones of Alabama, where Trump won by 28 points.

Republican incumbents face legitimate challenges for two Senate seats in Georgia and difficult fights in Arizona and North Carolina, all where Trump won narrowly. In two states Trump won by 9 points, Iowa GOP Sen. Joni Ernst faces a tough Democratic opponent in businesswoman Theresa Greenfield, while Republican Sen. John Cornyn is on alert against a Texas upset.

The difference from 40 years ago is that Reagan carried in a flock of freaks, because the nominations were so undesirable.  Democrats have actually recruited folks who can be re-elected.

Posted by at July 18, 2020 1:34 PM

  

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