July 6, 2020

GIVE DONALD CREDIT ON THIS ONE...:

Trump's misreading the map, looking for Electoral College votes in some of the wrong places (David Wasserman, 7/06/20, NBC News)

According to an Ad Age analysis of data compiled by the tracking firm Kantar/CMAG, the Trump campaign last week pre-booked $99.7 million of fall advertising, with the plurality -- $37.5 million -- going to Florida. To be sure, there will be many more buys to come. But the $18.4 million the campaign laid out in Ohio, which Trump carried by 8 points in 2016, exceeded the costs of its buys in the true battlegrounds of North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Arizona and Michigan.

By contrast, the Biden campaign's first general election TV foray is squarely focused on the six states closest to the "tipping point" of the Electoral College -- Arizona, Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin -- even though polls show him well ahead in all of those states.

In light of polls showing Biden a threat elsewhere, it's understandable that Trump's team would be tempted to put out fires in red states. But what Trump's campaign might not grasp is that in the modern polarized era of American elections, TV ads move numbers only on the margins and individual states don't move independently so much as demographic groups do.

Ohio is demographically similar to Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania: It has an aging, large blue-collar white population, a modest Black population and a relatively low Latino share. But Ohio voted for Trump by 7 to 8 points more than the three other states. If Biden is competitive in Ohio come November, he'll have already won Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin -- and almost certainly the presidency -- rendering Ohio irrelevant.

...he's lost all the swing states but has to hold OH and TX to avoid utter humiliation.
Posted by at July 6, 2020 6:20 PM

  

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