June 8, 2020
THE COMPLAINT OF THE TRUMPISTS...:
Lockdowns worked, new research shows: 60 million infections were prevented in the US, and Europe saved 3.1 million lives (Aria Bendix, 6/08/20, Business Insider)
In other words, nations like China benefitted from locking down early, while delays in the US and Italy may have resulted in unnecessary deaths. Indeed, disease modelers from Columbia University recently found that the US could have prevented 645,000 infections and 36,000 deaths by locking down one to two weeks earlier.Lockdowns also limited coronavirus-related hospitalizations and deaths in Europe. A team of researchers in Italy recently determined that the country's lockdown prevented around 200,000 hospitalizations between February 21 (when Italy's first case was reported) and March 25.Another study from Imperial College London, published Monday, found that lockdown restrictions averted 3.1 million deaths across 11 European countries from the time these measures were implemented in March until May 4.Italy avoided around 630,000 deaths during that period, according to the study. France, meanwhile, prevented around 690,000 deaths -- the most out of the 11 countries.While less than 1% of Germany's population has contracted the virus, the nation averted around 560,000 deaths from March to May, according to the study. By contrast, Spain and the UK -- where more than 5% of the population has been infected -- managed to avert more than 400,000 deaths.Nordic nations avoided the fewest deaths: around 34,000 in Denmark, 26,000 in Sweden, and 12,000 in Norway. About 3% of Sweden's population is infected, compared to 1% in Denmark and less than 0.5% in Norway.Overall, the researchers determined that lockdowns have a "large impact on transmission." In all 11 countries, the current reproduction number (the number of other people one sick person infects, on average) was significantly below one. That means an average person with COVID-19 passes the virus to just one or fewer people -- a sign that an outbreak is contained."We cannot say for certain that the current measures will continue to control the epidemic in Europe," the researchers wrote. "However, if current trends continue, there is reason for optimism."
...is that those millions of lives saved were not worth disrupting the economy Donald wanted to run on. (Ignoring the fact that the economy would have tanked even worse given that level of pandemic.)
Posted by Orrin Judd at June 8, 2020 6:55 PM