May 4, 2020
WHAT GORILLA?:
The Case for Deeply Negative Interest Rates (KENNETH ROGOFF, 5/04/20, Project Syndicate)
Now, imagine that, rather than shoring up markets solely via guarantees, the Fed could push most short-term interest rates across the economy to near or below zero. Europe and Japan already have tiptoed into negative rate territory. Suppose central banks pushed back against today's flight into government debt by going further, cutting short-term policy rates to, say, -3% or lower.For starters, just like cuts in the good old days of positive interest rates, negative rates would lift many firms, states, and cities from default. If done correctly - and recent empirical evidence increasingly supports this - negative rates would operate similarly to normal monetary policy, boosting aggregate demand and raising employment. So, before carrying out debt-restructuring surgery on everything, wouldn't it better to try a dose of normal monetary stimulus?
Kind of a pointless discussion without reference to deflation.
Posted by Orrin Judd at May 4, 2020 12:00 AM
