WHAT FUTURE?:

[I]t is not hard to understand why some Russian citizens do not like Putin or approve of his rule. Real incomes in Russia have fallen in five of the last six years. That statistic points to a protracted stagnation. Indeed, since 2014 the average growth rate of the Russian economy has been 0.6%, a fifth of the global average. It should hardly be a surprise that more than half (53%) of 18-24-year-olds now want to leave the country.

Putin hoped to shore up his domestic support through propaganda based upon the 75th anniversary of the Soviet Union's victory over Nazi Germany - propaganda that was designed to enhance the patriotism and pride of Russians, and remind them of their need for a strong leader. The onset of the current pandemic not only removed this option, but continues to erode Putin's strength - and to lessen his elite's perception of it.

As the coronavirus, and the deaths associated with it, continue to spread, the Russian masses - previously rendered passive though propaganda - will understand that Putin lied to them about Russia's preparedness. The public has become acutely aware of the Kremlin's subpar federal response to the pandemic, embodied in "videos showing ambulances lined up for miles waiting to deposit patients in overcrowded Moscow hospitals." They also understand that their country's health system (primitive by Western standards) is failing them, and that their living standards are dropping while Putin's crowd steals and spends money in places such as Syria and Ukraine--but not at home.

Levada Center Deputy Director Denis Volkov sees this as Putin's biggest problem. As he put it earlier this month, "People are afraid of wage cuts, and they expect a fall in living standards. These fears are now the most important. In effect the government has a few months to try to normalize the situation before the discontent becomes serious."

Signs of discontent were already visible before the onset of the virus. In 2019 alone, hundreds of mass rallies, flash mobs and other demonstrations took place throughout the country. These gatherings focused on issues as diverse as trash sites, minority language rights, election falsification, Putin's political appointments in the regions, and assorted government decisions. But this dissatisfaction, and the intensity of longstanding grievances, is only likely to increase in the wake of the current crisis.

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