May 22, 2020

HE'S SEEN THE INTERNAL POLLS:

Trump Needs to Win Michigan. So Why Is He Dumping on the State?: Pushing unpopular responses to COVID-19 and threatening federal aid isn't exactly a winning strategy. (Martin Longman, May 22, 2020, Washington Monthly)

The polls out of Michigan haven't looked very good recently for Donald Trump or really any members of the Republican Party. This is a problem for both Mitch McConnell and the president. For McConnell, Michigan is probably his second-best chance to knock off an incumbent Democrat after Alabama, as he tries to protect his party's slim Senate majority. But Sen. Gary Peters is leading in every survey taken this year, often by double digits. For Trump, it's a cause for anxiety because he probably needs to carry Michigan if he wants to be reelected, and over the last couple of months he's been down six to nine points.

To demonstrate what I mean, if we were to spot Trump every swing state but Michigan and Pennsylvania, and give Trump one Electoral college vote from Maine for good measure, he would lose 271-267. If we were to give Trump Pennsylvania but take away Arizona and Wisconsin, he'd lose 272-266. If Trump loses both Michigan and Florida, he could carry Minnesota, Wisconsin, Arizona, North Carolina, and Georgia and still lose 270-268.

By November he'll be curled in a ball on the floor of the bunker shrieking that we never deserved him.

Posted by at May 22, 2020 12:50 PM

  

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